Donald Trump isn't holding back on his assessment of Iran's leadership vacuum. In a recent interview, the US President declared that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is "90% gone".
If you're wondering what that actually means, you aren't alone. Trump’s characteristic phrasing points to a brutal reality on the ground. Mojtaba Khamenei, who hastily took the reins after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, is reportedly severely incapacitated. He hasn't been seen in public for months, missing even his own father’s high-profile funeral services. For another look, read: this related article.
This isn't just standard wartime bravado. It reveals a massive shift in how the conflict is playing out and who is actually running the show in Tehran.
The Strike That Shattered the Succession
When Operation Epic Fury launched, the primary objective was to dismantle the head of the Iranian regime. The opening salvos managed to do exactly that, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the strikes also severely wounded Mojtaba, who was huddled in the same inner circle. Further insight on this trend has been shared by The Guardian.
While Iran's Assembly of Experts quickly appointed Mojtaba to prevent a total collapse of authority, his leadership has been entirely phantom. He's rumored to be recovering from horrific, disfiguring injuries suffered in those initial blasts.
Trump’s "90% gone" comment highlights a crucial point: Iran is effectively leaderless right now. The theocracy that ruled since 1979 has lost its ideological anchor.
Who Is Calling the Shots in Tehran?
With Mojtaba sidelined and potentially near death, power has shifted. US intelligence suggests that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now running the country. This isn't a transition to a new spiritual leader; it's a slide into a direct military junta.
Trump has publicly dismissed Mojtaba as a "lightweight" and claimed his own father didn't even want him to take power. Declassified intelligence backs this up, showing the elder Khamenei harbored serious doubts about his son’s qualifications and intellect.
Now, the US is offering a $10 million reward for information on Mojtaba's location, alongside nine other top officials. The goal is clear: finish the job and force a total systemic reset.
The Strait of Hormuz Standoff
This leadership collapse explains why things are getting so chaotic in the Persian Gulf. Despite a temporary truce, Iranian forces have kept attacking commercial ships.
Trump’s response has been aggressive. He declared the truce over and announced a full reinstatement of the "Iranian blockade". Even wilder, Trump wants to charge international ships a 20% transit fee to have the US Navy escort them through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, fired back on social media, calling the 20% tariff absurd and insisting Iran remains the sole guardian of the waterway. But with their navy and air defenses heavily degraded, Iran's ability to back up those words is slipping away.
If you are tracking the geopolitical fallout, expect the US to keep squeezing Tehran's maritime trade routes. The proxy networks in Yemen and Lebanon will likely attempt asymmetric retaliation, but without a centralized command in Tehran, their coordination is fractured. Keep a close eye on the shipping lanes; security costs for global freight are about to skyrocket.
