Geopolitics rarely operates in a straight line. When an expanded bloc brings bitter rivals under one roof, friction is guaranteed. Moscow is betting that the upcoming BRICS summit hosted by India can paper over massive cracks between Tehran and Abu Dhabi.
Russia's leadership has made it clear they expect member states to hammer out a consensus on joint declarations despite fierce West Asian rivalries. But optimism from the Kremlin doesn't change reality on the ground. When foreign ministers met earlier for preparatory talks, the underlying tension broke completely into the open, torching hopes for a clean joint statement.
You have to wonder if expanding the bloc happened too fast. BRICS used to be a tight economic club of five emerging markets. Now it includes regional heavyweights locked in active geopolitical and military standoffs.
The Core Conflict Derailing Diplomatic Text
The friction points aren't subtle. Iran and the UAE find themselves on completely opposite sides of the West Asia crisis. Recent escalations involving drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure and maritime trade routes in the Gulf have turned diplomatic drafting sessions into battlefield extensions.
When draft declarations are circulated among Sherpas, every word matters.
- Tehran wants language that confronts Western pressure and highlights its positions.
- Abu Dhabi pushes back hard against what it terms aggressive targeting of its sovereign territory and vital oil assets.
Back in May, a ministerial meeting hit a brick wall over these exact disagreements. India, sitting in the chair's seat, had to settle for a diluted chair's statement because unanimity evaporated. Now, with leaders arriving in New Delhi for the main event, the pressure to secure a signed declaration is immense.
Why India Faces a Diplomatic Tightrope Walk
Hosting this summit puts New Delhi in a uniquely difficult position. India maintains robust economic and energy ties with Gulf nations while keeping independent diplomatic channels open with Moscow and Tehran.
You can't just wave away security concerns when a major energy chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption risks. New Delhi's strategy relies on "candid conversations" to keep everyone at the table. If the summit fails to produce a consensus document, critics will point out the structural fragility of an enlarged multipolar bloc.
Moscow insists that organizations like BRICS are designed for cooperation, not confrontation with the West. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently emphasized that the grouping has no formal charter and functions primarily as a club of shared economic ideologies. Yet, ideology doesn't stop missiles, nor does it automatically mend broken trust between neighbors.
Can National Currencies and Trade Bypass Geopolitics?
Away from the security headaches, economic pragmatism remains the glue holding the bloc together. Moscow reports that roughly ninety percent of commercial transactions between Russia and its partners now bypass traditional Western financial systems, utilizing national currencies instead.
Finance ministers meeting in Mumbai ahead of the leaders' arrival are pushing hard to institutionalize these financial workarounds. Smaller economies within the coalition want faster export payments and better financing options for infrastructure. They want tangible benefits, not endless debates over regional conflicts they didn't start.
Yet, economic integration hits a ceiling when political trust drops to zero. If Iran and the UAE cannot normalize bilateral ties, institutional cooperation on security, technology, and transport corridors will suffer.
Watch what happens during the closed-door plenary sessions in New Delhi. If a joint communique emerges without watering down regional stances into meaningless platitudes, it will mark a major win for Indian diplomacy. If it fails, expect quieter, smaller bilateral deals to replace grand multilateral announcements going forward.
